Suggestions for a mobile society

According to Professor Dr. Justus Haucap, director of the Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE), in his opening keynote speech at BUS2BUS 2024, the threefold challenge of decarbonisation, demographics and digitalisation will determine the transport sector’s future.

The economist emphasised that mobility contributed decisively to society and wealth. Road vehicle numbers in Germany had tripled since 1960, he said. He also expected mobility to increase in the future, due to more leisure time and city dwellers moving to rural areas.

At the same time the transport sector had to contribute to meeting Germany’s climate targets. There was considerable pressure for change regarding private transport, which despite the rise of EVs was still responsible for the bulk of emissions. Even if from a global perspective Germany was a minor emitter, there was a need to develop exportable technology that could also help reduce CO2 emissions in China for example.

In order to move forward with transitioning to new forms of transport and decarbonising in Germany, it was essential to shift transport habits from using private car use to bus and rail. New drive systems were a potential solution. However, replacing entire vehicle fleets would take time and savings would become apparent only in the medium term. Ultimately the aim was to change driving behaviour. That could be undertaken with a congestion charge, which had already been successfully introduced in London, Stockholm, Milan and Singapore for example. Inner-city traffic had fallen by an average of 20 per cent, the same amount as the increase in passenger volume on public transport. At the same time local municipalities could use this new income source, minus a certain amount of initial investment, for expanding public transport services. Introducing a congestion charge would not be a popular move politically, however it would prove very satisfactory with people in the long term. He suggested that the state authorities invited tenders for model projects in Germany.

Regarding the demographic situation, supply must keep up with demand, since in the long term more people will depend on public transport. On the other hand over the next few years many bus drivers will be reaching retirement age. Justus Haucap suggested focusing on recruiting female, older and immigrant workers. Policymakers had to incentivise full-time jobs with improved childcare services, by raising the pay threshold for pensioners as well as reducing red tape. Digitalisation could make a decisive contribution particularly where bureaucracy was concerned and give the industry a productivity boost. It would also open up opportunities for new business models. In the economist’s view, competition was the driving force for innovation and efficiency.